中国国际经济交流中心张永军:多举措促进经济社会发展,力争实现最好结果

张永军(中国国际经济交流中心副总经济师)

日前召开的中共中央政治局会议,分析研究了当前经济形势,对下半年经济工作进行了部署。会议强调,要做好下半年经济工作,“巩固经济回升向好趋势,着力稳就业稳物价,保持经济运行在合理区间,力争实现最好结果”。这为下半年经济工作指明了方向,在此笔者就若干重要方面谈谈自己的理解。

上半年国内疫情局部散发超出预期,从国际环境看俄乌冲突之后,美欧多方面严厉制裁俄罗斯遭到俄方反制,博弈程度及其影响也超出预期;美国、欧洲为了抑制通胀,出台大幅度加息措施的影响正在释放,这些均会对我国经济形势产生不同程度的影响。二季度我国经济增长态势受到一定冲击,但在党中央、国务院多项政策措施的作用下,我国经济克服种种不利因素,不仅实现了经济正增长,而且促使经济较快出现回升向好的趋势。从上半年的情况来看,要实现年初的预期发展目标,面临不少挑战。此次会议提出要“保持经济运行在合理区间,力争实现最好结果”,对于引导社会各方面预期、增强信心,具有重要意义。

会议对高效统筹疫情防控和经济社会发展工作做出明确部署。提出要“坚持动态清零,出现了疫情必须立即严格防控,该管的要坚决管住,决不能松懈厌战。要坚决认真贯彻党中央确定的新冠肺炎防控政策举措,保证影响经济社会发展的重点功能有序运转,该保的要坚决保住”。会议在明确强调继续严格防控新冠肺炎疫情、坚持动态清零的基础上,要坚决保证影响经济社会发展的重点功能有序运转,根据笔者的理解就是要保持物流的正常运转和人员的合理有序流动,同时地方政府、社区、乡村实现应有的社会功能、提供应有的公共服务。

会议提出,“宏观政策要在扩大需求上积极作为。财政货币政策要有效弥补社会需求不足。用好地方政府专项债券资金,支持地方政府用足用好专项债务限额。”今年上半年专项债的发行节奏比较快,从财政部公布的债务发行数据来看,今年预定的地方政府专项债的规模是3.65万亿元,到6月底实际发了约3.4万多亿元,财政资金实际下达比去年更早,现在关键就在于地方政府用足用好专项债。要把资金用在扩大需求方面,如加大对政府投资项目的支持力度,可考虑适当扩大专项债的使用范围。同时,考虑到今年专项债的发行额度已经差不多用完,四季度可考虑把下一年度专项债额度的一部分提前到今年来使用。从货币政策执行情况来看,货币供应量的增长速度比贷款的增长速度还要高,银行具备条件多发放贷款,以更大力度支持基础设施等方面的项目建设。

会议对房地产调控政策做出了明确的表述:“要稳定房地产市场,坚持房子是用来住的、不是用来炒的定位,因城施策用足用好政策工具箱,支持刚性和改善性住房需求,压实地方政府责任,保交楼、稳民生。”这一表述,充分说明中央对于当前形势下稳定房地产市场的高度重视,重视房地产市场稳定对保持金融市场整体稳定的重要意义。对于今年上半年地方政府在稳定房地产市场方面出台了一些措施,会议对于地方政府的探索予以肯定。在笔者看来,除了因城施策之外,城市之间在房地产调控方面的协同与合作也是一个值得关注的问题,特别是处于同一城市圈、经济区的城市。在当前形势下,如果只是各个城市自己想办法,由于一些规模大的房地产公司在全国许多城市都有房地产项目,如果各地都想着把当地楼盘建好去交付,资金监管的时候都把资金限制在当地,可能最后出现的结果是许多地方的房地产项目无法完工交付,这样就会出现2021年底中央经济工作会议上所说的“合成缪误”。因此,建议不同城市之间可以考虑探索合作方案,例如,由两个地方政府具体协调,帮助房地产公司提高资金在城市之间的流通性和使用效率,更好实现“保交楼、稳民生”。

会议对平台经济发展的政策做出了明确阐述,特别强调“要推动平台经济规范健康持续发展,完成平台经济专项整改,对平台经济实施常态化监管,集中推出一批‘绿灯’投资案例。从今年上半年的情况来看,我国几大互联网平台的发展遇到了问题,这些平台的后续发展需要有明晰化的政策预期。此次会议对于明晰下一步发展预期给出了比较清晰的表述,特别是提出要集中推出一批“绿灯”投资案例,表明了在合规的前提下继续支持平台经济发展、利用平台经济带动全社会经济发展的态度。

会议对“充分调动各方面积极性”有新的表述,特别强调“经济大省要勇挑大梁,有条件的省份要力争完成经济社会发展预期目标”。由于我国幅员辽阔,各地经济发展的条件存在明显差异,我国几个经济大省的整体条件是比较好的。但从今年上半年的情况来看,有的经济规模位居全国前列的经济大省,经济发展速度低于全国平均数,没有充分发挥出带动全国经济增长的作用。此次会议对于经济大省提出了殷切期望,希望有条件的省份能够力争完成经济社会发展的预期目标,对全国的经济发展发挥比较好的带动作用。

总之,中共中央政治局会议对下半年经济工作提出了要求,进行了全面的部署。相信在党中央的坚强领导下,经过全国人民的共同努力,我们一定能够将经济运行保持在合理区间,实现可能达到的最好结果。

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