经济恢复态势未变 A股呈现结构性特征

从宏观周期视角审视资产配置

7月国内PMI回落削弱了市场预期,而剔除短期因素后,经济并不悲观,国内大类资产整体延续弱复苏交易的主线。美国仍在滞涨末期和衰退预期之间反复,8月美国经济数据需要重点关注。在此背景下,A股表现相对占优,但短期回撤概率不低,建议关注结构性机会。

官方制造业PMI回落,复苏交易主线不改

上周末公布了7月官方PMI,制造业PMI数据不仅低于市场预期,而且行至荣枯线之下。从分项表现来看主要是供需收缩,尤其是供应收缩造成的。近5年,除了2019年,生产指数均季节性回落,但跌破荣枯线尚属首次。7月生产指数之所以回落,除了季节性因素,还在于PMI是环比指标。6月,生产企业复工复产,加之前期受疫情影响积压的订单陆续释放,生产指数攀升,而7月企业已然完成复工复产,除了高温因素,疫情再度散点暴发导致部分企业生产受到影响,作为环比指标的生产PMI自然下行。

制造业PMI数据也反映了当前内外需不振的事实。新订单指数回落,主要由于补偿性需求放缓。外需不振表现得更加明显,这既有欧美加息背后经济下行压力的影响,也有大宗商品调整之后价格效应支撑趋弱的影响。总而言之,外需大概率向下,内需修复斜率和程度才是决定年内经济成果的关键。

整体来看,7月制造业PMI超预期回落,主要系供需收缩所致,其并非完全体现当前经济情况。排除6月订单短时释放这一因素,尽管经济动能有所放缓,但汽车消费以及制造业转型升级仍在推进。PMI暂时回踩并不会改变我们对年内经济周期的判断,三季度乃至年内整体经济稳固修复的预期依然成立。

对于通胀周期的判断,无论从PMI价格指数的表现来看,还是从PPI翘尾因素的表现来看,PPI同比下行趋势相对确定。结合美林时钟理论对经济以及通胀周期的判断分析,国内经济仍处于复苏阶段,大类资产将延续复苏交易的主线。

美国技术性衰退已来,实质性衰退未至

近期,美国公布二季度GDP数据。实际GDP连续两个季度环比为负,这通常被市场认为是“技术性衰退”的标准,即美国已陷入技术性衰退。不过,技术性衰退并不等同于实质性衰退。NBER判断经济是否衰退,不仅基于GDP表现,而且要综合考察生产、就业、收入、销售等一系列经济活动。当下的美国,一方面二季度收入法下的实际GDP环比并未转负,另一方面劳动力市场表现依旧强劲,美国经济并未进入实质性衰退。

从预示经济衰退的一些指标来看,美债利差大多倒挂,准确率相对更高的10年期和3个月期的利差,7月29日也仅为0.26%,接近倒挂状态。受到俄乌冲突、加息等外部影响,这一轮经济衰退可能要比以往的指标预示规律出现得更快。

不过,从投资时钟的角度来看,美国当前仍处于滞胀末期,即将公布的7月美国CPI数据不仅对美联储接下来的货币政策走向至关重要,也在很大程度上决定着大类资产的轮动周期。

整体上,国内延续复苏交易,但PMI数据公布之后市场对经济预期小幅转弱,预计呈现弱复苏交易。美国经济在滞涨末期和衰退预期之间反复,需要重点关注8月的通胀和经济数据。资产配置层面,弱复苏周期下的A股表现相对占优,但回撤概率不低,三季度经济表现至关重要,建议重点关注结构性机会。(作者单位:)

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