多城房贷利率降至历史低位 专家称仍存进一步下调空间

本报记者 李正

随着信贷政策的逐步调整,国内多个重点城市11月房贷利率继续下降。11月21日,贝壳研究院发布数据显示,2022年11月份监测的103个重点城市主流首套房贷利率平均为4.09%,二套房平均为4.91%,较去年最高点分别回落165BP和109BP,创历史新低。

同时,最新一期LPR报价出炉,作为房贷利率定价的“锚”——5年期以上LPR(贷款市场报价利率)11月保持不变,1年期LPR为3.65%,5年期以上LPR为4.3%。

同策研究院研究总监宋红卫在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示,房贷利率持续降低的主要原因是,房地产市场复苏势头仍较弱,购房者信心不足,从维护房地产市场健康稳定发展的角度出发,房贷利率逐步降低,有助于降低购房者的资金成本,增强购房信心。

据贝壳研究院统计,截至11月18日,监测范围内已有18城首套房贷主流利率降至“3字头”,其中二线城市有6城,三四线城市有12城。变动幅度较大的泉州和温州首套房贷主流利率下调至3.8%,降幅达30BP。二线城市中,杭州自11月11日起取消“认房认贷”,首套利率已降至4.1%,二套利率已降至4.9%。

分城市线来看,一线城市房贷利率最高,首套平均为4.60%,二套平均为5.13%,与上月持平,二线及三四线城市首套利率平均为4.07%。从利率下调幅度看,三四线城市房贷利率同比降幅最大,首套和二套利率同比降幅分别为169BP和112BP。以首套房100万元商业贷款本金,30年期等额本息还款计算,平均每月可减少月供约1036元,需偿还的利息总额减少约37万元;一线城市房贷利率同比降幅最小,首套和二套利率同比降幅仅60BP和52BP。

易居研究院智库中心研究总监严跃进向《证券日报》记者表示,目前多地房贷利率已降低至历史低位,从数据上看将对市场产生较大影响,对于购房者来说,一个好的购房时机已经形成,但是由于市场反应往往比较迟钝,所以目前还需等待。

此外,对于房贷利率未来仍存在下调空间的观点,多位接受《证券日报》记者采访的业内人士表示赞同。

宋红卫表示,从购房利率的绝对水平来看,目前购房成本仍然较高,随着政策性利率不断下降,尤其是存款利率的调整,为房贷进一步宽松奠定了基础,因此房贷利率还具备进一步下降的空间和可能。

广东省城规院住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉认为,“房贷利率仍然存在下调空间,直到楼市基本稳定、房价止跌时,才会企稳。”

严跃进表示,现在最低的房贷利率已降到3.8%,一些重点城市的房贷利率还有进一步下调的空间,尤其是二套房的下降空间仍较大。

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