国际金价仍受到FED激进加息预期压制,本周关注两大事件

周二(8月16日),国际金价持稳,因在前两个交易日大涨后展开调整。但美联储激进加息前景仍利空金价,市场关注即将公布的美国零售数据和美联储会议纪要,料给金价带来新的方向。

北京时间14:56,现货黄金上浮0.05%至1780.38美元/盎司;COMEX期金主力合约下跌0.16%至1795.3美元/盎司;美元指数上浮0.06%至106.562。

美联储官员保持鹰派基调,并暗示今年进一步加息以抑制高通胀,前两个交易日累计大涨逾1.2%。美元走强让美元计价大宗商品对非美元持有者变得更加昂贵。

德国商业银行经济学家预计,美国明年将陷入衰退。然而,由于美国经济总体仍保持强劲,美元也将保持强势。“距离美联储开始真正担心美国经济前景仍有很长一段时间。美国经济到底会走弱到何种程度不确定性仍然很高。因此,现在就将衰退计入美元汇率似乎还为时过早。””

该机构经济学家还指出:“定于明天公布的零售销售数据,应该会证实美国经济目前依然强劲。因此,只要目前还没有明显的经济放缓迹象,美联储积极行动预期就应该会对美元构成支撑。”

瑞银全球财富管理首席经济学家Paul Donovan称,上周公布的美国通胀数据让金融市场对美联储下一步政策举措感到不确定。这种不确定性(以及相关的风险溢价)可能与美联储6月超预期加息有关。考虑到数据缺陷和波动性,消费者价格通胀地位提升增加了不确定性。美联储抛弃前瞻指引意味着,市场可以在没有美联储有效约束的情况下随心所欲地设定预期。

美联储加息前景和宏观面风险趋势将对金价产生巨大影响。本周主要事件风险为周三(8月17日)公布的美国零售数据和美联储会议纪要,料暗示美联储未来政策路径,并给金价带来新的方向。

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