欧洲经济陷入高通胀与能源危机泥潭

新华社布鲁塞尔8月15日电(国际观察)欧洲经济陷入高通胀与能源危机泥潭

新华社记者康逸 林浩 陈琛

近期,欧洲通胀水平不断攀升,屡创新高,导致消费不振。同时,欧盟为应对能源供应紧张提出的“开源节流”措施也饱受质疑。在高通胀和能源危机夹击下,欧洲经济前景愈加黯淡,衰退风险进一步加剧。

通胀高企拖累消费

今年以来,在美联储激进加息外溢效应、欧洲能源危机蔓延等诸多负面因素影响下,欧元区通胀率持续走高。7月欧元区通胀率按年率计算达8.9%,超出市场预期,再创历史新高。

受此影响,欧元区消费者生活成本激增,实际购买力下降,消费意愿减弱。同时,成本激增波及生产领域,导致工业产出下降,部分能源密集型企业停产。

欧盟统计局日前公布的数据显示,6月欧元区零售销售额环比下降1.2%,同比下降3.7%;当月欧盟零售销售额环比下降1.3%,同比下降2.8%。欧元区和欧盟零售销售额均出现萎缩,表明通胀压力下民众对消费持谨慎态度。

荷兰国际集团欧元区高级经济学家贝尔特·科莱恩指出,随着服务业重新开放的反弹效应消退,欧元区服务消费也在走弱,未来几个季度很可能呈下滑趋势,这将导致欧元区经济温和衰退。

欧盟委员会数据显示,7月欧元区消费者信心指数跌至负27,低于6月的负23.6,也低于经济学家的预期中值。

市场研究机构埃信华迈经济学家克里斯·威廉姆森认为,由于消费者越来越担心生活成本上升,即使疫情限制放松,消费者支出也没有如预期般激增。同时,在经济前景不明朗的情况下,企业支出也受到风险厌恶情绪影响。

节能措施难解困境

为保障能源供应安全,欧盟鼓励各成员国出台相关措施节约能耗、提高能效。7月底,欧盟就各成员国采取自愿措施将今年冬季天然气需求减少15%达成一项协议。协议自本月起正式生效,但最终能否发挥作用仍有待观察。

由于欧盟成员国储气能力不均、调剂能力不一,欧盟内部对协议看法不一。有成员国认为,该协议的法律基础“有缺陷”。也有成员国认为,协议是在为能耗大国“埋单”。此外,协议为一些国家设定了豁免条款,可能会削弱措施执行力度。

市场对欧盟削减天然气需求的协议并不买账,欧洲天然气价格仍维持上升势头。天达集团石油与天然气分析师内森·派珀表示,欧盟寻求降低对俄罗斯天然气的依赖,要付出“高昂的政治和经济代价”。

欧盟对俄罗斯的禁煤令8月11日开始实施。在此前4个月的过渡期内,欧盟增加了从美国、澳大利亚、南非和印度尼西亚等国的煤炭进口,但此举导致用煤成本上涨,在欧洲遭遇高温热浪用电量大增之际,进一步推高了电价。

风险积聚前景堪忧

尽管今年二季度欧洲经济实现增长,但分析人士表示,随着新冠疫情后经济重启效应逐步消退,在高通胀和能源危机夹击下,下半年欧洲经济面临更大的衰退风险。

经济合作与发展组织最新公布的综合领先指数显示,欧元区正在失去增长动力,经济前景恶化。作为欧元区经济火车头的德国二季度经济环比零增长,德卡银行分析师安德烈亚斯·朔伊尔勒预测,德国经济可能在冬季出现衰退。

金融机构iBanFirst首席执行官和创始人皮埃尔-安托万·迪苏利耶表示,乌克兰局势、能源转型实施不力等因素导致欧洲面临能源困境,欧元区衰退已成为大概率事件。新能源基础设施至少需要两到三年时间才能投入使用,欧洲经济在此期间将面临不确定性。

牛津经济研究院的报告指出,随着高通胀、节能措施和金融环境收紧对经济活动的影响越来越大,2022年下半年欧洲经济增长动力正在减弱。相关调查显示,未来12个月,欧元区步美国后尘出现技术性衰退的可能性接近60%。

为防止通胀进一步恶化,欧洲央行7月下旬启动十余年来首次加息,将欧元区三大关键利率均上调50个基点。通胀持续走高、经济衰退风险加剧给欧洲央行带来更大压力。

分析人士指出,欧洲央行货币政策落后于通胀形势,使得加息对当前通胀影响非常有限,而大幅加息可能加大经济衰退风险及债务危机风险,欧洲央行制定政策时进退两难。

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https://amanoshouten.co.jp/collections/vendors?q=%28%E4%B8%80%E6%AF%94%E4%B8%80%E5%AE%9A%E5%88%B6%29Liverpool%E7%95%A2%E6%A5%AD%E8%AD%89%E5%AD%B8%E4%BD%8D%E8%AD%89%E5%88%A9%E7%89%A9%E6%B5%A6%E5%A4%A7%E5%AD%B8%E6%96%87%E6%86%91%E6%88%90%E7%B8%BE%E5%96%AEQQ%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A12298881%E5%81%9AUOL%E7%95%99%E4%BF%A1%E7%B6%B2%E4%B8%AD%E7%95%99%E6%9C%8D%E5%AD%B8%E6%AD%B7%E8%AA%8D%E8%AD%89%E6%94%B9Liverpool%E6%88%90%E7%B8%BE%E5%96%AEGPA%E5%81%9AUOL%E5%81%87%E7%95%A2%E6%A5%AD%E8%AD%89%E5%AD%B8%E4%BD%8D%E8%AD%89%E5%AD%B8%E4%BD%8D%E8%AD%89%E9%AB%98%E4%BB%BF%E7%95%A2%E6%A5%AD%E8%AD%89PDF%E9%9B%BB%E5%AD%90%E7%89%88%E7%94%B3%E8%AB%8B%E5%88%A9%E7%89%A9%E6%B5%A6%E5%A4%A7%E5%AD%B8University%20of%20Liverpool%20Degree%20offer%20Diploma%20Transcript,caI |  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