已较低点反弹25% 苹果能否延续涨势?

(AAPL.US)股价已从6月的低点明显回升,上涨近25%。苹果在第三财季的业绩表现超出了市场的普遍预期,因为华尔街为其收益设定了相当低的目标。值得注意的是,最近该股大部分的股价上涨都是在财报公布前实现的,这表明市场对三季度业绩相当有信心。科技股似乎正在走出熊市,但苹果股价在中期内仍可能“跑输大盘”,投资者对目前的价位应保持谨慎,该股暂不处于可增持阶段。

苹果关键增长领域的显著放缓并非始于三季度,该公司需要一些戏剧性的举措来继续推动其收入和盈利能力的增长,以证明其估值是合理的。

从业绩来看,苹果三季度收入增长了1.9%,而息税前利润同比下降了4.4%,市场在其发布财报之前对此已有了正确的判断,并且结果均好于预期。尽管如此,其关键部门的收入有明显的下降趋势。如上所示,服务部门在三季度收入增幅继续下滑,同比增长12.1%。iPhone和Mac的销售同样表现不佳,Mac收入同比下降10.1%。然而,消费放缓将不仅仅发生在三季度,疫情期间的快速增长已逐渐开始走向正常化。

即使是看涨的分析师也认为,苹果的收入和息税前利润增长趋势可能会继续保持缓和至2023年,但这远远没有达到苹果在过去五到十年中公布的指标。

大摩预计订阅模式可以为苹果增加大约1万亿美元的市值,但市场倾向将苹果作为一家硬件公司来看待,关于其软件即服务和订阅驱动的流媒体业务的预期都将因此大打折扣。苹果用户基数已逐渐趋于稳固,留存率保持高水平并持续上升,新的市场机会,以及用户支出仍在持续增长,投资者将开始倾向于对其使用终身价值的估值方法。

Loup Ventures认为苹果未来的潜在增长领域可以帮助维持投资者对这个科技巨头的积极情绪。放眼2023财年之后,潜在的增长领域包括健康、AR/VR头盔,以及苹果汽车。知名的苹果分析师郭明錤也认为,到2025/26年,苹果的AR/MR出货量可能达到1000万台,有望与Meta(META.US)的生态系统竞争。值得注意的是,苹果汽车业务有望发生重大突破,但目前看来,依然很牵强。

苹果非凡的执行力和供应链的弹性仍不足以证明其在未来四年的估值,预计苹果股价在其近期(166美元)和中期阻力(180美元)将面临巨大卖压,其潜在上行空间有限,投资者应谨慎在当前水平增加新的头寸。

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