光大期货【铜】:行情直接形成拐点的可能性不大 总体仍可偏乐观去看待

隔夜先抑后扬。宏观方面,美国公布的7月CPI和PPI数据,均出现低于预期值和前值表现,表明通胀初步得到遏制,激进加息预期降温下,市场风险偏好继续得到提振;国内方面,近两个交易日公布的社融和房地产大幅低于市场预期,经济修复信心受挫。基本面方面,8月份大型铜企检修进入尾声,精炼铜产量预估89.21万吨,环比增加6.2%,同比增加8.9%。但受夏季高温影响,安徽、浙江及江苏相继出台限电限产政策,但据调研显示对冶炼端产生较大影响较大,实际产量或比预估至偏低。

库存方面来看,上周全球铜显性库存减少2.9万吨至47.1万吨,其中LME库存增加3250吨至131850吨,国内含保税区社会库存减少3.09万吨至28.73万吨,保税区库存下降较显著。总体来看,基本面处于持续修复阶段,8月环比仍会改善,投资者应关注8月是否有超预期的表现。另外,市场传出国储收储传闻,但传闻的收储方式及节奏较多,因此市场也偏淡看待此信息,从以往收(抛)储与铜价走势来看,并不会直接影响铜价趋势,但会影响走势节奏。‘

综合来看,国内宏观情绪变弱,但海外仍然偏强,难以形成共振,另外国内基本面表现仍偏乐观,因此笔者认为行情直接形成拐点的可能性不大,总体仍可偏乐观去看待。

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