7月新能源车销量环比下滑 下半年竞争加剧

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证券时报记者 毛可馨

车市在6月冲高后进入7月淡季,销量如预期般出现环比下滑,新势力交付量也重新排位。下半年新车型密集登场,在做大整个市场蛋糕的同时,分蛋糕的激烈竞争也在加剧,部分车企已经出现价格策略的调整。

淡季增势放缓

又到了每月一度交成绩单的时候。小鹏、理想、蔚来3家新势力7月分别交付11524辆、10422辆、10052辆,同比增长43%、21.3%、26.7%,环比则均出现20%~25%的下滑。

原本的第二梯队反超“蔚小理”,保持着较稳定的增长势头。

7月哪吒交付量为14037辆,同比增长134%;零跑交付12044辆,同比增长177%;小康股份销量为13291辆,同比增长317%,其中汽车销量7807辆,同比增长8874%;广汽埃安销量25033辆,同比增长138%。以上车企交付量环比在增长,均创下单月交付新高。

值得注意的是,不同车企统计口径略有差别,例如广汽埃安销量以上险量计算,而新势力多以交付数量计算,因此会存在一定的时间差。

尽管特斯拉中国和两大车企的销量还未出炉,但7月车市环比下滑基本成形。

乘联会在7月22日发文,预计7月乘用车零售销量177万辆,同比增长18%,环比下降8.9%;预计新能源车销量45万辆,同比增长103%,环比下降15%。

“7月本来就是销售淡季,环比下降很正常。而且今年6月由于疫情导致的滞后交付和销售,以及政策拉动形成了销售大幅反弹的现象,其中包括部分5月底的后置需求和6月底的抢购需求,对7月会销售有所透支。”惠誉评级亚太地区企业研究董事杨菁对证券时报·e公司记者表示。

此外,汽车供应链仍存在未扫清的障碍。据接近蔚来的人士透露,由于订单需求强劲,蔚来本有望在7月再创销量新高。但由于个别零部件供应问题,导致ET7和EC6产量降低,从而影响了交付数。

蔚来董事长李斌日前谈及ET7交付进展时也表示,因为压铸件供应不足,导致7月生产较计划减少了数千台。李斌在当日活动现场喊话,拜托各位供应商伙伴顶住压力。

二级市场上汽车板块8月1日表现强势。A股涨9.6%,小康股份涨6.06%,涨4.87%,比亚迪涨3.18%;港股吉利汽车涨近13%,长城汽车涨超10%,蔚来涨超8%,小鹏汽车涨近7%;截至发稿,蔚来、小鹏、理想美股盘前分别涨3.14%、2.95%、6.34%。

竞争愈发激烈

多数机构依然维持新能源车全年500万辆以上的销售预期。展望下半年,新车型密集亮相,不仅新势力开始投放新一批产品,传统车企的新能源车品牌也在加速登场和上量。

近期,就有小鹏G9、理想L9、比亚迪海豹、阿维塔11、长安深蓝SL03等高热度车型陆续上市,20万元~30万元的SUV市场竞争尤为激烈。

“7月的环比下滑尚在预期之内,关键在于8月及之后能否出现明显好转。虽然电动车渗透率提升大势不改,但在消费景气度没有明显提升的环境下,随着新车型越来越多,成为爆款车型也越来越难。”一位私募人士告诉证券时报·e公司记者。

值得注意的是,小鹏汽车为促销已经开始提供现金折扣。记者从小鹏汽车销售人员处了解到,近期小鹏全系车型都有5000元左右的尾款减免,其中小鹏P7 625km续航版本减免幅度最大,达1万元,这个版本也是选购人数较多的。“尾款减免就是7月下旬开始的,是全国统一的政策,不知道什么时候结束。”销售人员说。

价格策略调整可能是由于新增订单放缓的压力。

杨菁表示,在小鹏的价格区间里,竞品不仅限于其他自主品牌的电动车,还有近期受惠于购置税减半优惠和地方补贴的燃油车。上半年电池成本上升推高电动车价格,在今年的政策环境下,可能会降低电动车相对竞品燃油车的价格优势。

市场关心小鹏此举是否会引发电动车的价格比拼。除现金优惠外,车企还能通过更隐性的权益优惠等方式让利消费者。

一位汽车行业分析师对证券时报·e公司记者表示,小鹏本身品牌力偏弱,且产品周期处于末期,降价不太会有车企跟随。

杨菁则提醒,这可能是电动车企开展以价换量策略的一个信号。相对来说,价格区间和主流燃油车产品相近的电动车企,降价压力会更大一些,因为传统车企有较大的动力在今年降价去燃油车库存,并用较低的定价来吸引消费者。

与此同时,车企也在横向和纵向不同维度拓宽市场,谋求错位竞争。

例如,比亚迪加速出海,紧接着日本市场后,于8月1日宣布进入德国、瑞典市场,首批车辆第四季度交付。

同日,还有市场消息称,蔚来汽车正计划推出第三个汽车品牌,用以覆盖20万元以下的中低端市场。蔚来对此表示,目前没有可供披露的信息。

蔚来目前的品牌NIO,针对高端市场,同时计划推出一个面向20万元至33万元大众市场的新品牌,记者获悉该品牌内部代号为阿尔卑斯。今年3月,蔚来透露该品牌核心团队搭建完成,首批产品进入关键研发阶段。5月,合肥经开区与蔚来签署项目合作协议,该项目将导入蔚来新产品,计划2024年建成投产。

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