兰格视点:集装箱行业对不锈钢需求情况透视分析

一、集装箱行业介绍

集装箱,是能装载包装或无包装货物进行运输,并便于用机械设备进行装卸搬运的一种组成工具。集装箱最大的成功在于其产品的标准化以及由此建立的一整套运输体系。能够让一个载重几十吨的庞然大物实现标准化,并且以此为基础逐步实现全球范围内的船舶、港口、航线、公路、中转站、桥梁、隧道、多式联运相配套的物流系统。

集装箱按照所装货物种类划分有干货集装箱、散货集装箱、冷藏箱集装箱、罐式集装箱,以及一些特种专用集装箱,如汽车集装箱、牧畜集装箱、兽皮集装箱等。其中,干货集装箱占集装箱总数的80%左右,主要材料是普碳钢;与不锈钢关联度较高的是冷藏箱集装箱和罐式集装箱,大概占集装箱总数的10%左右。

二、集装箱行业的发展

继市场运费持续下跌后,集装箱过剩的情况也在加剧,曾经“一箱难求”的集装箱,正挥泪甩卖。尽管全球集装箱运输量仍处于高位,但由于需求放缓以及集装箱利用率逐步提高,使得二手集装箱的价格持续下跌。

集装箱监测领域专业机构Container XChange联合创始人兼首席执行官Christian Roeloffs认为:“目前集装箱供过于求的形势,是疫情带来的一系列市场变化的结果。疫情严重时期,由于运输需求增加以及港口拥堵加剧,供应链持续紧张,导致集装箱周转时间延长。但随着时间的推移,市场重新开放,运输需求疲软,集装箱供过于求是供需实现新平衡后的自然结果。”

他进一步表示,过去两年,推动集装箱价格远高于历史水平的主要因素,是供应链紧张导致集装箱周转时间的延长。现在,仍有大约10%的集装箱周转存在瓶颈,不过市场需求已经疲软。

2021年,由于港口严重拥堵、供应链紧张导致的“一箱难求”,促使不少班轮公司恐慌性购买集装箱,增加集装箱供应,进而推动集装箱产量达到了创纪录的水平。但现在,大量闲置集装箱正堆积在港口的堆场中。

Container XChange就过去一年的集装箱市场进行了分析,结果显示,中国、美国以及北欧的二手集装箱价格,一直处于下降通道,且降幅超过运费。Container XChange表示,今年年初以来,全球集装箱运费下降了约20%,而二手集装箱的价格,在最近11个月里下降了25%?33%。

由于当前全球多国面临着较大的通胀压力,可能会进一步抑制消费需求,进而降低集装箱运输量以及对集装箱的需求。

全球海事咨询公司Sea-Intelligence的数据显示,2021年,全球集装箱量为5000万TEU,其中850万TEU的集装箱过剩。如果加上2022年交付的450万?480万TEU的新造箱,预计到2023年,全球将有1300万TEU的过剩集装箱。

三、集装箱生产企业竞争格局

从竞争格局来看,集装箱制造业垄断程度相对较高。前三大集装箱制造商——中集集团、东方国际、新华昌,产能合计占比达到85%以上。分区域的市场集中度也非常高,全球集装箱产能中有95%分布在我国沿海城市,尤其是中国华东区域是全球集装箱供应能力最大区域,其次是中国华南区域。

四、集装箱行业的不锈钢需求

中国集装箱制造行业用不锈钢的主要集装箱种类为干货集装箱、冷藏(柜)集装箱、罐式集装箱、挂式集装箱、平台集装箱,具体使用部位见下表:

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